INDIAN ECONOMY

INDIAN ECONOMY

Indian economy is growing day by day.It is clearly reflected by data of GDP which is consistently revolving between 8- 9% which is healthy sign for Indian economy.India is just close to China whose GDP is around 11 to 12 %.But GDP alone is not an indicator of Development as there r many countries in world that have GDP around 20% even they lacks behind other countries, because they don’t have enough who can work or lack demand because for any economy to grow industrial growth in that country must be rapid and for industrial growth to take place there must be element of demand in that country. So India also has this advantage as huge amount of population leads to increased demand which also favours India. Development of Indian economy is also reflected by the fact that from last year increasing foreign currency flows are coming to India because of development potential of Indian industries.

But the main problems confronting Indian economy today are Inflation and rising crude oil prices. Inflation for week ended June 14 has touched 11.45% and crude on Friday has touched $143 per barrel from $136 a barrel in last week showing a uptrend of 4-5 % in last week which is a worrisome indicators for global as well as Indian economies.

Inflation & rising crude oil prices

When economy will grow that’s sure inflation will also increase but inflation above 6 % is cause of concern for our economy. But the main increase in inflation if we can analyze is mainly due to crude oil prices which have increased from $97 per barrel in October,2007 to $143 a barrel in June 2008 due to which 44% increase in crude oil has affected inflation to extent of 95% approx. as it has increased from 4% to 8.10%. 11.45% is weekly data annual inflation is around 8.10%. S o what I want to say that it is a short term phenomenon as in maid term crude will go to around $110 a barrel n also RBI has taken various steps such as it has increased CRR ratio as well as Repo rates by 0.5%. So the effect of all will tame down inflation and by September it will be around 6 %.

Saudi Arabia stated that it is ready to increase production by 200,000 barrels per day to give support to the international prices. This is provided there is an appropriate increase in investment both upstream and downstream necessary to ensure adequate and timely supplies. Also, the transparency and regulation of financial markets should be improved, it said. So in long run crude oil prices will also come down

Hoarding is also a factor which has resulted in increase of crude prices. Government has also taken measures to control it as follows
In response to record oil and gasoline prices, however, the US House of Representatives has approved legislation directing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use its authority, including emergency powers, to “curb immediately” excessive speculation in energy futures markets, which have been affected by massive inflows of money and zooming prices and also to control speculation and hoarding.

I am a BULL who has very optimistic view towards Indian economy and according to me in coming 2 to 3 years Indian markets will see an equity boom tht has never occurred place n in my point of view our stocks from where they are today will triple from current price sin coming two years. Its my own view
By Bhuvan